Bizarro World Podcast,
with Nick and Gerardo
July 6, 2026
The free version of the 371st episode of Investing in Bizarro World is now published.
Here’s what was covered:
Macro Musings - America’s 250th birthday, Canada Day, gold, silver, the dollar, rates, sector rotation, and the early setup for the second half of the year.
Gerardo opened by noting that the first half of the year has looked a lot like a healthy consolidation after last year’s major move in the metals and resource stocks. The big gains in many of the portfolios started in the second half of last year and carried into the January top. Since then, the sector has pulled back, cooled off, shaken out weak hands, and created the kind of summer frustration that resource investors know all too well.
But Gerardo still sees the consolidation as healthy. Gold held the area that mattered. Last week, the big concern was that if gold failed around the $3,915 level, the next major downside target could be closer to $3,400. Instead, gold bounced and was sitting around $4,120 during the recording. Silver also avoided the uglier breakdown scenario. It had been flirting with the $53–$54 handle, but bounced back to roughly $61.
The dollar helped. The DXY retreated back below 101 to around 100.89, and the 10-year yield fell below 4.50%. Kevin Warsh also started to soften his language on inflation. After weeks of market debate over whether the Fed would be forced into another rate hike, Warsh was already saying the battle against inflation is showing signs of progress. Gerardo called him a dove in hawk’s clothing, and the market seemed to hear the same thing.
Nick said this is exactly the kind of setup they discussed last week. Disinflation gives the Fed cover to backtrack from hawkishness. Oil continues to come down. Commodities have either softened or moved sideways. Nick expects the June CPI print to come in meaningfully lower than the May number, which should give the Fed more room to stand still rather than hike.
The market now sees a very high probability that the Fed does nothing at its July meeting. September is closer to a coin toss, but Nick thinks the inflation numbers between now and then could tilt the odds toward no action. That would be a major change from the past few weeks, when the short end of the curve was pricing in a higher chance of additional hikes.
That does not mean gold, silver, or copper are immediately back to bullish. The dollar remains relatively strong. Gold has bounced, but Nick said it still needs to close and stay above roughly $4,190 before he would view it as repairing the short-term chart. If it can do that, then a test of the $4,400 level comes back into view. For now, gold is consolidating between roughly $3,900 and $4,200.
Nick also pointed to rotation under the surface. The Nasdaq and several major tech names have softened, while rate-sensitive sectors like real estate, utilities, financials, insurance, and health care have started to lead. The market may feel slow because it is summer, but capital is still moving. It is just moving beneath the surface.
Market Takes - Gerardo shifted to uranium, where the long-term contract price is now around $96, while spot uranium remains near $85. That gap matters because the long-term price is what utilities pay to secure future supply. In his view, the long-term price making new highs is a bullish signal for the second half of the year, especially if the broader commodity supercycle starts to reassert itself after the first-half consolidation.
Nick agreed that uranium and nuclear remain one of the better long-term contrarian setups. Uranium equities still look weak. Cameco (NYSE: CCJ)(TSX: CCO), Centrus Energy (NYSE: LEU), the Global X Uranium ETF (NYSE: URA), and other uranium-related charts are softer than gold, silver, or copper. But the fundamentals continue to improve. Government support is growing. Red tape is being cut. Nuclear is clearly needed. And when the fundamentals are bullish while the equities are weak, that can create opportunity for patient investors.
The U.S. had set a goal of getting four small modular reactors to reach criticality by July 4th as part of the country’s 250th anniversary push. That goal was achieved. Nick said that is real progress and should be treated as such. Canada also released a 10-year nuclear plan in late June, with the goal of building 10 new reactors, starting at least two within the next seven years, and regaining some of its leadership in the nuclear and uranium space.
At the same time, supply remains precarious. Cameco announced another temporary issue around Cigar Lake, this time tied to problems at a nearby mill used to process ore. The company said the issue should not affect annual production guidance, but Nick noted that this is the second short-term disruption in recent weeks, following flooding issues in the region. Longtime uranium investors know exactly why that matters. Supply disruptions helped ignite the last uranium bull market roughly 20 years ago.
The conversation then moved to France, heat waves, grids, and air conditioning. France is a nuclear-heavy country, yet parts of its nuclear fleet were reportedly limited because river water used for cooling became too warm during the heat wave. At the same time, the mayor of Paris blamed the heat wave in part on American air conditioning and emissions. Nick’s response was blunt: look at per-capita emissions, look at China, and remember that the Paris Climate Accord gave China years of runway to keep increasing emissions.
The grid issue is not just European. The East Coast has been dealing with heat warnings, and U.S. grid operators have been warning about the risk of blackouts as demand rises from air conditioning, data centers, and broader electrification. Nick cited recent warnings from utility executives and grid operators, then tied that back to where Gerardo lives in Texas, where brownouts and grid stress have already become familiar.
That is why nuclear matters. You do not fix grid fragility with slogans. You fix it with reliable baseload power. Nick pointed out that if the country had been more proactive about cutting red tape and accelerating nuclear development years ago, we would be in a better position today. Instead, we are now asking people to set thermostats to 78 degrees while data centers, AI, electrification, and summer heat all pull more power from a strained system.
Nick also called out the media’s reflexive negativity around nuclear. One recent article on the successful SMR criticality milestone spent much of its time worrying about speed and safety. Nick’s view was simple: there are real concerns with any technology, but this is progress. It should be recognized. Nuclear offers stable baseload power and emissions-free generation. That is exactly what the grid needs.
Gerardo agreed. The same generation that helped create massive deficits, unsustainable war budgets, and long-term fiscal problems should not be the same generation blocking the one energy source that can serve future generations for decades. Nuclear is expensive up front, but once the infrastructure is in place and the fuel supply is secured, it is among the cleanest and most reliable forms of energy on the planet.
He also gave the Trump administration credit where he believes it is due. On critical metals and nuclear, he thinks the administration has done well by fast-tracking permits, accelerating funding, and pushing harder to establish domestic supply chains. Amid all the dysfunction, that is one area where the policy direction is clear and constructive.
Bizarro Banter - The Bizarro section opened with America’s 250th birthday and a question Gerardo clearly found hard to ignore: why is the House refusing to hold a vote on deeper U.S.-Israel military integration?
Gerardo said one could make an argument for closer U.S.-Israel cooperation if it were truly reciprocal — full access to technology, databases, intelligence, personnel, and defense capabilities on both sides. He does not agree with that argument, but he acknowledged that Israel is technologically advanced, entrepreneurial, and highly capable on defense. The problem, in his view, is that the proposed arrangement looks one-sided. The U.S. gives Israel access to American databases, technology, and systems, but does not appear to get the same access back.
That led to a broader rant on lobbyist influence, foreign influence, AIPAC, military policy, billionaire donors, and the refusal to put controversial decisions on the record. Gerardo pointed to Thomas Massie and Ro Khanna as two of the only figures pushing for a vote. His view was that if Congress is going to allow a deeper fusion of U.S. and Israeli military infrastructure, the public should at least know who supports it.
He also discussed Air Force officer Jason Watson, who reportedly protested in uniform on the Capitol steps and called for Trump to be impeached, convicted, and arrested. Gerardo said listeners can agree or disagree with Watson’s message, but the act itself took obvious courage given the potential consequences to his career, pension, and freedom.
Nick had not yet seen the Watson story, but used the moment to return to last week’s theme of tribalism. Whether it is Thomas Massie, Marjorie Taylor Greene, or Tucker Carlson, anyone who refuses to toe the line on Israel is quickly pushed out or attacked. Nick mentioned Tucker’s recent criticism of the U.S.-Israel relationship and said the broader issue is that people are no longer allowed to call obvious problems what they are without being exiled from their own political tribe.
From there, they moved back to Iran, the ceasefire, and Trump’s repeated victory claims. Nick said Trump has effectively “won” the same war over and over, while the underlying nuclear concessions remain unclear. He also pointed out that Trump is claiming credit for lower gas prices even though prices spiked in the first place because of the conflict.
The Trump crypto grift came next. Nick and Gerardo discussed reports that Trump made roughly $1.4 billion from crypto-related ventures while early holders of Trump- and Melania-branded coins lost most of their value. Gerardo added that significant liquidity reportedly came from the Middle East and tied that back to Trump’s new Air Force One gift. Both hosts saw the same pattern: the very people who spent years attacking Biden family corruption now appear to be normalizing the same kind of influence-peddling and self-enrichment.
Nick did give Trump credit for one thing: rolling back restrictions on supersonic flight over the United States. That opened the door to a discussion of Boom Supersonic, a company developing a new supersonic jet that could fly around Mach 1.7 and cut New York-to-London travel to roughly three and a half hours. Major airlines have already ordered planes. Nick chalked that one up as a legitimate win.
The Supreme Court section had the same mix of agreement and frustration. Nick said the Court got several things right: it did not allow Trump to fire Lisa Cook, it did not allow him to end birthright citizenship by executive action, and it sided with states seeking to prevent biological males from competing in girls’ sports. Gerardo agreed on those issues, especially girls’ sports. Both hosts said people have the right to identify how they want, but biological males should not be competing against girls in contact or competitive sports.
Washington state came up again. Nick said the Supreme Court ruling does not automatically settle the issue in states like Washington, California, or Illinois, where Democratic leaders have already pushed back. He expects the Washington ballot fight to matter, and he again criticized the language used by many media outlets, which often avoids saying “male” or “boy” even when that is the plain biological issue at stake.
Nick also discussed the Washington state income tax initiative. Signature gathering appears to have been extremely successful, and he said people were eager to sign when he carried the petition around at his kids’ ball games. Many people who moved to Spokane from Seattle do not want the same tax model following them east. Nick thinks the initiative may have collected more signatures than any prior initiative in state history, suggesting that the tide may be turning.
Gerardo also highlighted a Fourth Amendment win from the Supreme Court. The Court ruled that police cannot use broad geofencing technology to collect digital evidence from entire neighborhoods without a specific warrant. In his view, that was the right call. If the Constitution means anything, the government should not be able to vacuum up everyone’s digital data and sort it out later.
Then Nick finally got to the Pope.
Pope Leo’s recent encyclical on artificial intelligence warned that AI should serve humanity rather than dominate it. Nick summarized the argument this way: AI can and should serve humanity only if it remains subordinate to human dignity, truth, work, freedom, justice, peace, and communion. If it becomes an architecture of control, profit, war, or self-divinization, it becomes a new Tower of Babel.
Nick agreed with some of that. AI should not be used to exploit the poor, concentrate power in the hands of a few billionaires, or turn war into something less human, more automated, and more destructive. But he also said the Catholic Church has a lot of work to do before preaching too hard about human dignity and protection. He pointed to continued scandals involving priests, including recent examples in Spokane and at Notre Dame, where allegations against clergy again appeared to be handled through transfers, delays, and quiet institutional protection rather than real accountability.
That brought the conversation to another technology story: the claim that the iPhone is “birth control.” Nick discussed a recent National Bureau of Economic Research paper that looked at AT&T’s early iPhone monopoly from 2007 to 2011 and whether early iPhone access contributed to declining birth rates. The short version: maybe a little, but probably not as the main cause.
Nick said the decline in birth rates is far more complicated than one device. As countries become wealthier, more educated, and more urbanized, birth rates tend to fall. Younger people are marrying later, partnering less, having less sex, doing fewer drugs, drinking less, and having fewer accidental pregnancies. The Great Recession, housing costs, COVID isolation, social media, pornography, financial anxiety, and declining confidence in upward mobility all likely play a role.
Gerardo agreed. The iPhone makes for a great clickbait culprit, but the deeper issue is social and economic. A lot of people no longer see the same upward mobility that once defined the American promise. That is a much bigger subject than one device.
The section closed back where the episode began: America at 250. The country has real problems, from debt and corruption to foreign influence, institutional decay, political tribalism, grid fragility, and the still-unreleased Epstein files. But the hosts also emphasized that there are still wins worth celebrating: nuclear progress, critical metals momentum, Supreme Court checks, technological advances, and the possibility that the country can come out of this Fourth Turning stronger on the other side.
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0:00 Introduction
1:32 Macro Musings: Gold Support Holds. Silver Rebounds. Dollar Below 101. Fed Cover. Rate Hike Odds. Sector Rotation.
10:39 Market Takes: Uranium Contract Highs. SMR Criticality. Canada Nuclear Plan. Cameco Supply Risk. France Heat Wave. Grid Warnings.
18:43 Bizarro Banter: America’s 250th. Israel Military Fusion. Trump Crypto Grift. Supreme Court Wins and Losses. Pope AI. iPhone Birth Control.
50:20 Premium Portfolio Picks: (You need to subscribe to Investing in Bizarro World Live to get this section)
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