Bizarro World Podcast,
with Nick and Gerardo
June 19, 2026
The free version of the 369th episode of Investing in Bizarro World is now published.
Here’s what was covered:
Macro Musings - Nick is in his summer digs, the kids are out of school, and he and Gerardo are both looking ahead to the Rule Symposium in Boca Raton from July 6–10. Gerardo checked in from Texas, where summer is fully underway, his middle child is settled in Alaska, and he and his wife just celebrated 24 years since they met.
From there, the conversation moved quickly to the market’s latest read on the Iran war. Gerardo noted that, at least for the moment, the Strait is open, missiles and bombs have stopped from the U.S. and Iranian sides, and the market appears to believe the deal. That matters because the dollar and oil had not been acting like they believed prior ceasefire headlines. This time, the dollar index was back below 100 near 99.59, oil had fallen to roughly $76, volatility had come down, and gold and silver were recovering.
Gold bounced back to roughly $4,332 after last week’s near-bottom call, while silver regained the $70 handle. The VIX was around the mid-teens, oil volatility was lower, and gold volatility was lower. Gerardo joked that “we did it,” but both hosts were careful not to overstate the victory. Nick said the market believes the deal, but the details were still coming out, Israel and Lebanon remain potential flashpoints, and the nuclear weapons provisions still appear to be an open item — despite that being the entire point of the war in the first place.
Gerardo pushed back hard on the idea that this was some kind of brilliant strategic win. He noted that the U.S. reportedly spent around $80 billion, lost lives, depleted munitions, damaged regional infrastructure, and may now be looking at unfreezing $100 billion in Iranian assets plus a $300 billion reconstruction fund. All of that, in his view, got the U.S. back to roughly where it started: the Strait open, the U.S. not bombing Iran, and Iran not bombing U.S. infrastructure in the region.
Nick framed the deal more as an off-ramp than a clean victory. He said Trump likely saw the danger of the conflict becoming a quagmire and took the available exit. The market likes peace, lower oil, and less volatility, but the longer-term consequences remain: wasted capital, depleted munitions, more debt, and the need to rebuild defense stockpiles that require many of the critical minerals Nick and Gerardo have been discussing for months.
Market Takes - The metals bounced where they needed to. Nick pulled up the gold chart and showed that gold had tested the major trend line last week, got dangerously close to breaking down, but did not meaningfully close below it. The key level now is around $4,380, which had previously acted as support and now becomes resistance. If gold can reclaim that area, the technical picture improves considerably. Until then, the bull market remains intact, but not fully repaired.
Nick also showed the CRB commodity index, which has now corrected roughly 10% from its recent highs. That correction has been driven largely by soft commodities coming down after their war- and fertilizer-driven spike. But inside the broader commodity pullback, copper continues to hold up well, and the underlying supply-demand fundamentals remain strong. Nick again emphasized the same ranking he has been using: copper looks better than gold, and gold looks better than silver.
Gerardo used the summer slowdown to make the larger point: this is exactly when investors should be doing the work. Volume and liquidity have dried up, bids are scarce, and there is not a lot of selling. That is classic bottoming behavior. In his view, there is a major opportunity right now to load up on dirt-cheap companies with exposure to both precious metals and critical metals, especially while everyone else is outside and not paying attention.
He also reiterated that gold and silver could have a very strong second half of the year. Central banks remain broadly supportive of gold, with nearly all saying they are either buying more or holding what they have. Forced liquidation during the war likely created much of the recent selling pressure, as players sold what was liquid — gold, silver, and even Bitcoin — to meet margin calls, redemptions, and funding needs. If the Iran deal holds and energy flows normalize, Gerardo believes that is very constructive for gold.
The Fed remains one of the most important near-term variables. Gerardo previewed the incoming Fed chair’s first major speech, saying it will likely go one of two ways: either cautiously hawkish, which the data still supports, or an early attempt to set the table for a rate cut later this year. Nick pulled up the Fed probabilities and noted that the market now sees very high odds of no action in the near term, with the probability of future hikes coming down compared with a week earlier.
Nick explained that with oil back near $70 and May inflation likely representing a short-term peak, the Fed now has cover to jawbone rates lower or at least avoid sounding aggressively hawkish. Inflation should cool in June and July if the ceasefire holds. That does not mean a cut is imminent, but it does mean the market is pricing in less need for hikes. In short: the Fed may not be ready to cut, but the pressure to hike has eased.
The conversation then turned to volatility. Oil volatility spiked dramatically when the Iran war started, rising from roughly 30 at the beginning of the year to around 120, and has since fallen toward the low-50s. That is down a lot, but still elevated. Gold volatility has also fallen sharply, from around the mid-40s earlier in the year to the mid-20s, which suggests gold is less likely to see wild downside swings in the near term. Nick’s read was simple: gold may not be racing back to $5,000 immediately, but it also does not look like it is about to break down.
Copper remains the cleanest chart. Nick noted that copper just posted an all-time high weekly close, which is about as bullish as it gets. Gerardo agreed, pointing out that the world still needs far more copper than is currently being mined and produced. The same applies across uranium, lithium, rare earths, tungsten, and other critical minerals. China continues to prioritize global mineral access, Europe remains far behind its stated goals, and the structural resource story is not going away.
Bizarro Banter - The political discussion opened with the two hosts trying to make sense of the Iran “victory” and the broader state of the country. Gerardo found it highly symbolic that during the 250th anniversary celebration of the United States, the country staged a spectacle that reminded him of ancient Rome in decline, while the White House reflecting pool stopped reflecting because of algae caused by a botched paint job and poor maintenance. A $14 million no-bid contract and a separate lawn reconstruction funded with a $1 million donation from Miracle-Gro only made the symbolism more on the nose.
Nick added that the same federal government unable to execute basic construction projects on budget or with good outcomes is also the government managing war, debt, infrastructure, and monetary policy. The two hosts tied the incompetence and potential corruption back into the broader fourth-turning theme that runs through the show: institutions are failing, trust is eroding, and the public is left watching the same dysfunction repeat across foreign policy, domestic politics, and basic governance.
Gerardo also questioned the legal and political logic around the Iran deal. If the administration did not seek congressional authorization to begin strikes, why would it suddenly need congressional sign-off to stop them? Nick noted that some interpretations of the 2015 Iran deal require congressional approval for future agreements, but the broader absurdity remained obvious. Gerardo summed it up as idiocracy and used it as another example of how backward the political process has become.
The hosts briefly touched on Epstein, Israel, Lebanon, and the possibility that the political and media pressure campaign could shift now that the Iran war appears to be paused. Gerardo wondered how Israel would respond if it still wants a broader war with Iran and whether the media would begin rolling out additional Epstein-related stories involving Trump. He was careful not to predict exactly what comes next, but his view was clear: peace is welcome, but recent history suggests the region will not stay quiet easily.
Nick and Gerardo also discussed SpaceX again, sector rotation, and whether investors who missed AI are now chasing the “next frontier” through space.
Nick said the SpaceX IPO was clearly enormous and noted that Gina Rinehart reportedly put $1 billion into it. He also mentioned a financial adviser friend whose clients were calling specifically to request SpaceX allocations, something he had not seen in a long time. Whether that reflects rational long-term demand, fear of missing out, or investors trying to find the next AI-style winner remains to be seen. Meanwhile, Nick sees signs of rotation beneath the surface: information technology is still the best-performing S&P sector year-to-date, but materials have led over the past week, and health care has been one of the better performers over the past month.
Before moving into the premium section, Nick spent time on nuclear and uranium. He noted that uranium names had sold off and then bounced hard, and he has been buying some of the larger uranium stocks. The nuclear backdrop remains strong, with small modular reactor development advancing in the U.S., China continuing to start and build new reactors, and data center power demand reinforcing the need for reliable baseload power.
Nick also introduced a fuel angle that he believes deserves more attention. Antares recently reached criticality with a reactor using TRISO fuel, which stands for tristructural isotropic. Unlike conventional fuel pellets stacked in rods, TRISO uses tiny poppy-seed-sized uranium particles encased in ceramic and carbon layers, designed to be much more resistant to meltdown. Nick sees potential opportunity not just in uranium miners, but also in fuel producers, isotope manufacturers, pellet makers, and companies tied to the next generation of nuclear fuel supply.
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0:00 Introduction
2:12 Macro Musings: Iran Deal Believed. Oil Falls. Dollar Below 100. Gold Rebounds. Six-Dimensional Chess. Reflecting Pool Algae.
14:36 Market Takes: Gold Bottom Call. Trendline Test. CRB Correction. Fed Cover. Volatility Falls. Copper Strength. Sector Rotation. Nuclear Fuel.
28:32 Bizarro Banter: White House Spectacle. SpaceX IPO. Retail FOMO. Pope AI Tease. iPhone Birth Control. Sewer Tunnel Warning.
52:01 Premium Portfolio Picks: (You need to subscribe to Bizarro World Live to get this section)
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