Bizarro World Podcast,
with Nick and Gerardo
Sept. 21, 2026
The free version of the 381st episode of Investing in Bizarro World is now published.
Here’s what was covered:
Macro Musings — The bond market forced Kevin Warsh’s hand.
Kevin Warsh finally raised interest rates by 25 basis points. The odds of a hike had climbed from roughly 50% several weeks ago to more than 90% immediately before the meeting as oil surged above $100 and bond yields continued rising.
The stock market initially disliked the decision, and precious metals sold off briefly. But the reaction was far milder than it could have been. Gold recovered by as much as $90 after the Fed meeting, trading near $4,345. Silver gained approximately 3.4% to approach $65, while copper rose roughly 3% to around $6.52 per pound.
Nick remains neutral on gold in the immediate term. The metal broke below $4,300 heading into the Fed meeting but found support near $4,240. Reclaiming approximately $4,375 to $4,380 would restore the bullish technical setup. A deeper correction could test $4,000, which has become the market’s new major floor.
The longer-term forces supporting gold remain firmly in place: runaway government debt, persistent deficits, continued central-bank accumulation and the likelihood of long-term dollar weakness. Gerardo and Nick both expect gold to resolve higher as the market moves into the fall.
Silver remains more complicated. It is not only a monetary metal but also an industrial commodity, leaving it more exposed to slower economic growth. Copper currently has the strongest technical setup of the three, followed by gold and then silver.
Economic growth may remain strong enough to produce third-quarter GDP near 4%, but Nick expects growth to slow significantly late this year and into 2027. Inflation’s rate of change may already have peaked following the initial oil shock, falling from more than 4% earlier in the year to approximately 3.4%–3.6%.
The Fed acted late, as usual, and the bond market is still warning that something is wrong. The two-year Treasury yield is near 4.7%, threatening another yield-curve inversion. The 10-year yield briefly exceeded 5% before retreating toward 4.93%. Mortgage rates remain near 7%, and rising sovereign yields around the world continue to signal financial stress.
The dollar index climbed back above 100 after falling near 98. But a short-term dollar bounce does not alter the structural debt and deficit problems that continue to support gold.
Market Takes — Oil above $100 is squeezing consumers while capital pours into quality resource stories.
West Texas Intermediate was trading near $101 during the show after recently reaching approximately $106. Gasoline pumps in parts of California are reportedly hitting their $9.99 display limits. Diesel was around $7.39 in Spokane and above $5 in parts of Texas, with some stations reportedly running out.
Those prices are rippling through the economy. Diesel affects agriculture, trucking and nearly every link in the supply chain. Ground beef has moved above $6 per pound, and Nick recently paid approximately $125 to fill his wife’s SUV even though the tank was not empty.
Iran continues to threaten an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and neither Gerardo nor Nick sees an obvious short-term resolution to the conflict. Persistently expensive energy will keep pressure on food, transportation and consumer prices while increasing the risk of an eventual economic slowdown.
The widening K-shaped economy is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. The number of millionaire households continues to grow, yet a large share of the population is struggling with groceries, housing and other necessities. The last balanced federal budget arrived in 2001, when the national debt was approximately $6 trillion. It has since surpassed $40 trillion.
Meanwhile, the resource-financing market remains extremely active. Gerardo and Nick recently participated in a restricted private placement that attracted more than $1 million from Private Placement Intel members within a matter of days. The response illustrates how much capital is available for well-structured deals involving district-scale projects and sub-$20-million valuations.
Another potential restricted opportunity may arrive within the next week or two. It involves a company valued at roughly $10 million with a district-scale gold and critical-metals land package in a Tier 1 jurisdiction. Gerardo already owns shares, has interviewed the CEO and is considering increasing his position.
Private Placement Intel is beginning to approach its practical capacity because demand for attractive financings has become so strong. Sellers are also drying up in many of the better resource companies. One copper company continued appreciating even after a large block of financing paper became freely tradable.
The resource-supercycle thesis is becoming more widely recognized, and the strong market between October and January last year may offer a useful roadmap for the coming months.
Gerardo and Nick will be at the Beaver Creek Precious Metals Summit next week. Listeners attending the conference are encouraged to come say hello. Because of the travel schedule, there will not be a podcast next week.
Bizarro Banter — Both political parties keep fumbling issues that should be easy wins.
Republicans are fighting among themselves while Democrats continue struggling to capitalize on the opportunity. Congress left Washington for recess with the Iran conflict unresolved, inflation pressuring households, questions surrounding the Epstein files and political pressure surrounding Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
The Texas Senate race offers another example. James Talarico is challenging Ken Paxton, and a growing number of Republicans — including former Paxton staff members — have publicly said they cannot support Paxton. Comedian Ron White recently made the same point during an appearance with Joe Rogan, citing Paxton’s controversies and the costs borne by Texas taxpayers.
Cannabis policy should provide Republicans with a straightforward personal liberty and small government issue. Instead, the Texas alcohol lobby continues opposing THC and Delta-8 products. President Trump wants marijuana rescheduled, and the DEA now supports rescheduling, but lawsuits and established lobbying interests — including the drug-testing industry — are fighting the change.
The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (NYSE: MSOS) has risen from approximately $4 in early August to around $5 despite broader weakness in the S&P 500. That relative strength suggests investors increasingly expect federal rescheduling to occur.
Democrats generated their own share of political theater when California Governor Gavin Newsom staged an interview with Jake Tapper beside a Montana creek — without anyone bothering to put on waders. Newsom also said he would not run for president if Kamala Harris enters the race, adding another layer of uncertainty to the party’s 2028 field.
Closer to Gerardo’s home, a man sitting in a Round Rock park was reportedly stabbed in the neck by a repeat offender. The incident occurred near a trail Gerardo and his family use regularly. It highlighted the need to deal seriously with violent repeat offenders, untreated mental illness and public-safety policy without turning every enforcement action into political theater.
In another Texas controversy, Republican Railroad Commission candidate Bo French posted racist commentary in response to a photograph of University of Texas football students. Republican legislators, including Jeff Leach, publicly condemned the remarks and called for French to withdraw.
The White House has also created an online arcade featuring games built around border enforcement, school lunches and other political themes. A “Build the Wall” game was reportedly removed, while “Rio Run” and several other titles remained available. Nick confirmed during the show that the site was real.
The hosts also reacted to reports that bestiality was removed as an automatic disqualifier for FBI applicants. The reported policy and the justification offered for it left both Nick and Gerardo incredulous.
Finally, Macklemore was reportedly removed from an Ed Sheeran tour following political comments supporting Palestinians and calling for equal rights. The hosts discussed the pressure allegedly applied by New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft and other sports executives, along with criticism from Pink, and contrasted that response with the way powerful public figures’ own controversies are often treated.
It was another week filled with institutional dysfunction, cultural hypocrisy and unmistakable Fourth Turning energy.
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0:00 Introduction
1:52 Macro Musings: Warsh Hikes. Bond Vigilantes Win. Gold Holds. Copper Leads.
11:10 Market Takes: Capital Floods In. Oil Tops $100. Diesel Soars. The K Widens.
24:05 Bizarro Banter: Cannabis Rescheduling. Paxton Revolt. White House Arcade. Macklemore Canceled.
49:06 Premium Portfolio Picks: (You need to subscribe to Bizarro World Live to get this section)
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