Bizarro World Podcast,
with Nick and Gerardo
Aug. 3, 2026
The free version of the 374th episode of Investing in Bizarro World is now published.
Here’s what was covered:
Macro Musings - Kevin Warsh finally spoke, the Fed held rates steady, the bond market sent mixed signals, and gold continued to look increasingly comfortable above $4,000.
Gerardo’s takeaway from Warsh was that the new Fed chair is polished, but his message did not entirely add up. Warsh reiterated that 2% inflation remains the target while simultaneously arguing that the Fed did not need to hike because the market was already doing some of the tightening for it. The Fed voted to hold rates, with three members favoring a 25-basis-point hike.
The immediate reaction was messy. The Dow initially fell more than 1,100 points, while the 30-year Treasury yield pushed to its highest level since 2007. But the shorter end of the curve behaved differently. Nick pulled up the charts during the podcast and showed the 2-year and 10-year yields beginning to cool after the announcement, while the 30-year continued higher.
The bigger development may have been the dollar. After weeks of strength, the DXY fell sharply back below 100. Nick said that if the dollar can close the week there, it would represent a meaningful short-term breakdown — exactly the kind of macro improvement the metals have been waiting for.
Gold, meanwhile, appears increasingly indifferent to what the dollar and yields are doing. Nick showed that gold’s previously strong inverse correlations with both the dollar and the 10-year yield have essentially collapsed toward zero over the past couple of weeks. Gold held the $3,900–$4,000 area, has moved back above $4,100, and the chart increasingly suggests $4,000 may be the new floor.
Nick said he would have no problem with gold consolidating around these levels for a while longer. A sideways market near $4,000 would be healthy and could provide another opportunity to accumulate gold equities, uranium stocks, and selected copper names ahead of the fall.
Market Takes - Copper continues to lead, silver continues to consolidate, uranium remains boring but attractive, and money is rotating aggressively beneath the surface of the broader stock market.
Silver remains caught between roughly $55–$56 support and $60 resistance. Nick said it needs to break conclusively above $60 to return to a clearly bullish short-term trend, but he does not view consolidation around $57–$58 as problematic. Mining earnings are also beginning to come in, with companies like Centerra reporting results that Nick viewed favorably.
Copper remains the strongest major metal. Futures were around $6.50 during the recording, putting copper within striking distance of its May highs near $6.77. Nick thinks that strength may be another sign that inflation is beginning to reappear in industrial commodities after the temporary disinflation that followed oil’s earlier decline.
That raises the question of where the next inflation pulse appears. Oil is back above $100. Copper is strong. Nick said inflation could begin showing up in base metals, lithium, nickel, tin, fertilizers, soft commodities, or some combination as higher energy prices filter through the economy.
Gerardo thinks investors have a relatively small window to finish building resource positions before fall. He continues to expect September through December to be strong for junior resource portfolios, particularly as exploration programs generate assays and other catalysts and new capital begins returning to the sector.
Uranium remains one of the quietest opportunities. Spot continues to hover around $85 and the long-term contract price around $95, but Gerardo expects utility contracting activity to accelerate in the third and fourth quarters. Rising electricity demand from AI and data centers could add another layer of demand, and he believes a move above $90 spot and $100 long term could quickly trigger a 30%–50% rerating across portions of the uranium equity market.
Nick agreed. URNJ has returned to roughly the $22 area where it consolidated during the summer of 2025 before nearly doubling. He does not think the current consolidation is necessarily finished, but sees substantial value across uranium equities and views the summer weakness as preparation for the next leg higher.
The other important market development is rotation. The South Korean KOSPI — driven heavily by semiconductor and technology stocks — has fallen roughly 20%–30% in recent weeks and repeatedly triggered circuit breakers. Nick noted that a meaningful portion of the liquidation involved margin accounts.
The same rotation is occurring inside the S&P 500. Information technology has fallen sharply over the past month, while energy, financials, consumer staples, and health care have taken leadership. Nick pointed again to British American Tobacco (NYSE: BTI) and Target (NYSE: TGT) as examples of names benefiting from that rotation.
Gerardo used the KOSPI and margin liquidations to make a broader point about risk management. Investors need to understand what kind of investor or speculator they actually are. Some people should take profits aggressively. Others are comfortable riding enormous volatility when they believe the underlying thesis remains intact. His example was PMET Resources (TSX: PMET)(OTC: PMETF), formerly Patriot Battery Metals, where he entered around C$0.16, watched the stock climb into the mid-teens, and remains comfortable holding a large core position despite the subsequent decline because his long-term lithium and critical-metals thesis has not changed.
Nick echoed that with an old Jim Dines rule: never trade on margin unless you completely understand the risk, and remember that whether you are rich or poor, it is good to have cash.
Nick still has meaningful dry powder heading into fall. He cleaned up the remaining Hudbay position he received from the Arizona Sonoran transaction and also took profits on a shorter-term OceanaGold trade initiated near the July gold lows. He intends to redeploy that capital into higher-conviction positions he wants to own for the longer-term move and made a new Underground Alpha recommendation this week.
Bizarro Banter - Fauci returned to Congress, the Iran war continued, surveillance technology kept getting creepier, the Epstein files remained missing, and institutional accountability remained difficult to locate.
Gerardo discussed Rand Paul’s latest hearing involving Anthony Fauci. Fauci repeatedly invoked the Fifth Amendment rather than answer questions surrounding COVID, the origin of the virus, U.S. funding connected to research at the Wuhan lab, and prior testimony. Gerardo said he believes there are legitimate questions surrounding conflicts of interest and what Fauci and his organization knew, but also called the hearing a dog-and-pony show because Fauci already received a pardon from President Biden.
Nick agreed with the broader point: both parties protect their own. He tied Biden’s Fauci pardon to Trump’s own controversial pardons, crypto conflicts, nepotism, and the general revolving-door culture in Washington. Regardless of which party controls government, accountability seems to disappear when politically connected people are involved.
Gerardo argued that other issues deserve at least as much attention. He pointed to Flock surveillance cameras and reported cases of law-enforcement officers abusing access to track women, arguing that if individual officers can misuse the technology, the surveillance capabilities available to governments deserve much greater scrutiny.
The Iran war remains another major concern. Nick and Gerardo discussed the difficulty of getting clear casualty figures, attempts to classify some U.S. deaths as occurring during ceasefire periods, repeated declarations that peace is near, and reports that additional reservists may be preparing for deployment. Both continue to believe the cleanest outcome would be a U.S. withdrawal before the conflict expands further.
Gerardo also returned to the Epstein files, noting that the statutory deadline for their release has long passed while politically connected attorneys remain deeply intertwined with the case. His broader message was to keep an eye on the issues that actually matter rather than becoming consumed by political spectacles designed to dominate the news cycle.
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0:00 Introduction
1:57 Macro Musings: Kevin Warsh Holds Rates. 30-Year Yield at 2007 Highs. Dollar Breaks Below 100. Gold Holds $4,000. Correlations Break Down.
14:50 Market Takes: Copper Nears Its Highs. Inflation Returns. Iran War Risk. KOSPI Crash. Sector Rotation. Uranium Consolidation. Margin Warnings. Fall Buying Window.
36:17 Bizarro Banter: Fauci Pleads the Fifth. COVID Accountability. Flock Camera Abuse. Iran Casualties. Epstein Files. Pardons and Political Protection.
42:48 Premium Portfolio Picks: (You need to subscribe to Bizarro World Live to get this section)
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