Bizarro World Podcast,
with Nick and Gerardo
Sept. 14, 2026
As we head into the fall, there are factors at play that spell a positive upward trend for commodities. This is most evident in gold, uranium, and lithium. Everyone with the right positioning is going to reap the rewards.
The free version of the 380th episode of Investing in Bizarro World is now published.
Here’s what was covered:
Macro Musings — The bond vigilantes are calling Bessent’s bluff, and 5% is the line in the sand.
Gerardo opened with the turmoil in global bond markets. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had effectively challenged the bond vigilantes by declaring that he was “the house” and inviting the market to bet against him. For the moment, the market is doing exactly that.
The 30-year Treasury yield moved above 5.35%, while the 10-year approached the critical 5% level. Nick pulled up the long-term chart and explained why that threshold matters. A sustained breakout above 5% would take yields beyond their October 2023 high and open the technical path toward 5.33%, 6% and potentially even 7%. The last comparable yield levels coincided with periods such as the dot-com bust and the financial crisis.
Gerardo noted that the spread between the U.S. 10-year Treasury and China’s 10-year government bond had widened to approximately 324 basis points. Washington is now spending close to $2 trillion annually on interest while Beijing borrows cheaply and continues accumulating gold.
The renewed fighting with Iran has pushed crude oil back above $100 per barrel and added another inflationary force to the economy. The next CPI report was expected to come in around 3.6% to 3.7%, while the market was assigning roughly a 73% to 74% probability to a quarter-point rate increase at the September 16 Federal Reserve meeting.
Nick remains in the no-hike camp. The market may be signaling that higher rates are necessary to contain inflation, but the political system and the federal government’s refinancing needs make a hike extremely difficult. Washington is simultaneously discussing a $5,000 “Trump dividend,” which would add more fiscal stimulus to an economy already struggling with inflation, debt and rising borrowing costs.
The dollar remains weak, with the DXY near 99 even as Treasury yields rise. That combination reflects the absence of meaningful deficit reduction and the market’s deteriorating confidence in U.S. fiscal management.
Gold fell to nearly $4,300 this week amid higher rates. Nick identified roughly $4,330 as the immediate support level. If that fails, gold could retest $4,000. He would view that as a potentially healthy correction and likely buying opportunity rather than the end of the bull market.
Central-bank buying, institutional accumulation, inflation, currency weakness and unsustainable government debt continue to support the long-term gold thesis. Volatility remains elevated, however, and investors should be prepared for $100 or even multi-hundred-dollar moves in either direction.
Gerardo continues to view $4,000 as the new floor. He expects China and other overseas buyers to keep taking advantage of weakness, as they have repeatedly during the current bull market.
Silver had fallen to approximately $63.50 after failing to hold $66. Nick characterized the short-term setup as neutral and potentially bearish unless silver can reclaim $64. The next Federal Reserve decision should provide more clarity. At the same time, persistent inflation could restore silver’s bid because it participates in both the precious-metals and industrial-commodity markets.
Market Takes — Inflation is returning, commodities are breaking out and the pullback may be a gift.
The CRB Commodity Index has broken out of a multi-year cup-and-handle formation and is trading near record highs. Nick sees that as confirmation that the commodity supercycle that began in 2020 remains intact.
The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, which tracks 10 agricultural commodities, gained approximately 13% in August. Gerardo also cited a 1.9% August increase in the World Food Price Index, taking it to its highest level in nearly four years. With oil above $100, diesel at record highs and beef prices at all-time highs, he worries that the world could be moving toward a more serious food shortage or food-price crisis.
Copper recently reached record highs in both the United States and London before pulling back toward $6.50. The immediate catalyst was a report suggesting that President Trump may continue delaying a tariff decision because manufacturers are already struggling with high input costs.
Nick and Gerardo view the tariff headlines as short-term noise. The structural copper deficits remain, and the long-term chart would still be bullish even if copper corrected toward $5. Government jawboning can create violent daily moves, but it does not produce new mines or solve the underlying supply problem.
For investors who missed the late-summer rally, fall weakness may provide another chance to build positions in high-conviction gold, silver and copper companies. Nick has remained patient following a strong August and has not purchased anything during September. His only recent trade was a short-term leveraged gold-stock ETF position near the end of August.
Gerardo, meanwhile, is adding to selected precious-metals positions. He is also writing a substantial check into a new Private Placement Intel opportunity involving copper, gold and silver assets in two Tier 1 jurisdictions. He expects the company to conduct potentially game-changing exploration over the next six to 12 months.
Another Private Placement Intel opportunity is being finalized for the coming weeks. It involves a district-scale gold project with critical metals in a Tier 1 jurisdiction, a small market capitalization and management that Nick and Gerardo know from previous successful investments. If everything proceeds as planned, the financing will fund drilling in the coming months.
Private Placement Intel is approaching its 250-member limit, after which additional spots will only become available when an existing member leaves. See how to participate in these deals with Nick and Gerardo here.
Bizarro Banter — Washington campaigns against socialism while practicing redistribution, censorship and tribal politics.
The Republican midterm convention reportedly struggled with attendance in Dallas, while the local Grindr app crashed after delegates arrived. Gerardo used the episode to highlight the gap between the party’s “family values” messaging and the behavior of some of its members. He was careful to note that sexual orientation has nothing to do with whether someone possesses family values; his criticism was directed at hypocrisy.
That led to Sydney Sweeney’s highly sexualized campaign for the Novig sports-trading app. Gerardo praised Sweeney for consensually monetizing her beauty and questioned why critics on the left were more outraged by an adult woman’s advertising campaign than by far more consequential issues. Nick added that Sweeney, a Spokane native, had recently returned home to help distribute food following local fires.
Nick and Gerardo also revisited the Lindsay Clancy case. Both believe she must be held accountable for admitting that she killed her three children. At the same time, the case exposed severe failures in mental-health treatment, including an extraordinary number of prescriptions reportedly provided within a short period. They rejected efforts to blame her husband and criticized the online tribalism that turned the case into another ideological contest.
The political discussion then shifted to socialism and communism. Gerardo argued that the left would be far more persuasive branding itself around “compassionate capitalism” rather than democratic socialism. The right, meanwhile, is campaigning against communism while proposing $5,000 government checks and ignoring debt, inequality, veterans’ benefits and the country’s mental-health crisis.
They also discussed reports concerning alleged connections between Mitch McConnell’s wife, Elaine Chao, and entities associated with the Chinese Communist Party. Their broader point was that partisan warnings about foreign influence rarely extend to politically connected members of one’s own side.
Nick used Zohran Mamdani’s discounted U.S. Open tickets as an example of redistribution that does not address the underlying problem. Making a limited number of tickets cheaper for selected residents generates a political victory, but it does nothing to explain or reduce the original cost of attending the tournament.
A new Roy Cohn biography prompted another discussion of political contradiction. Cohn prosecuted alleged communists during the McCarthy era, remained closeted throughout his life, represented prominent organized-crime figures and later became an important mentor to Donald Trump.
Nick also discussed Nickel and Dimed by Barbara Ehrenreich. He appreciated the book’s examination of low-wage workers struggling with housing, healthcare, transportation and invasive employment practices. After finishing it, however, he learned that Ehrenreich had served as a co-chair of the Democratic Socialists of America. He found a contradiction between her political advocacy and the temporary nature of her experiment, during which she yearned to return to a comfortable professional life.
The hosts then turned to an FCC equal-time controversy surrounding Jimmy Kimmel’s interview with Texas candidate James Talarico. Regardless of the technical rule being invoked, both saw government threats against broadcast licenses as a dangerous step toward censorship.
Their conclusion was that Americans have more in common than political media suggests. Most people want safe communities, quality education, meaningful work, good pay, decent benefits and opportunities for their children. Civil discourse becomes easier when those shared goals form the starting point.
Finally, an AI expert’s estimate of a 10% chance that artificial intelligence could destroy humanity by the end of the decade led to a lighter ending. Nick acknowledged that the technology is becoming more capable, including its ability to search company filings, while remaining maddeningly unable to follow basic editorial instructions. His conclusion: if AI still cannot format a title correctly, he is not yet worried about it killing him.
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0:00 Introduction
2:36 Macro Musings: Bond Vigilantes Call Bessent’s Bluff. Yields Near 5%. Oil Surges. Gold Tests Support.
16:18 Market Takes: Food and Fuel Soar. Commodities Break Out. Copper Gets Trumped. The Supercycle Lives.
24:44 Bizarro Banter: Sydney Sweeney Cashes In. Socialists Redistribute. The FCC Flexes. AI Fails the Title Test.
49:06 Premium Portfolio Picks: (You need to subscribe to Bizarro World Live to get this section)
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