Eagles, Turkeys and Tax-Loss Bargains - Bizarro World 385

The free version of the 385th episode of Investing in Bizarro World is now published.

With Nick away, Gerardo welcomed veteran resource investor Jeff Phillips for a discussion of contrarian investing, tax-loss opportunities, Geomorphic AI and the lessons learned over three decades of financing junior companies.

Here’s what was covered:

Macro Musings — Falling metals prices test conviction while cash preserves the ability to act.

Gold was trading near $4,027 during the recording, down approximately $112 and again testing the $4,000 level. Silver fell roughly 6% and broke below $55, while copper traded around $6.40 following a decline of approximately 3.5% over several days. Brent crude, meanwhile, approached $113 amid continued Middle East turmoil.

Jeff’s response was to focus on the companies rather than obsess over daily commodity prices.

Many resource stocks reached their 52-week highs earlier in the year and have since endured a prolonged correction. Tax-loss selling is now adding pressure as investors lose conviction and sell positions that have fallen substantially from their purchase prices.

His priorities are straightforward: companies need enough cash to weather difficult markets, continue advancing their projects and demonstrate that their assets can work economically at prevailing commodity prices.

Jeff remains firmly bullish on gold over longer periods. He began accumulating physical gold around $296 per ounce after stepping back from his business in the late 1990s and has continued buying over the years.

He views gold primarily as protection against the declining purchasing power of currencies. A sharp daily correction does little to change that thesis when governments continue expanding the supply of money.

Copper and other critical minerals have a separate supply argument. Major discoveries are becoming harder to find, existing producers face declining output and new technologies require increasing quantities of metal. AI infrastructure needs copper and electricity, while nuclear power requires uranium.

China’s control over processing and refining compounds the problem. Western governments are finally directing capital toward mining, refining and strategic supply chains, but those investments require time to produce results.

Jeff’s principal near-term concern is a broader liquidity event, potentially triggered by an unwinding of excessive AI investment. Forced selling can drag down gold and quality resource stocks alongside everything else as investors raise cash.

That possibility reinforces the importance of keeping reserves available. The long-term commodity thesis can remain sound while share prices fall far enough to punish anyone who is overleveraged or unable to wait.

Market Takes — Back the people and shareholder base, then let technology accelerate the geological work.

Jeff’s company-selection process begins with management.

He wants to work with people he respects, trusts and enjoys being around. In the junior-resource business, that personal assessment must be supported by a record of creating value through discoveries, successful development, meaningful increases in company value or acquisitions.

Share structure comes next, but the analysis extends well beyond the number of outstanding shares.

Jeff wants management and directors to own substantial, formally disclosed positions. In many companies he finances, insiders hold at least 20%, with some ownership groups considerably more concentrated.

He also examines who owns the remaining shares. A committed group of experienced investors can provide a stronger foundation than repeated financings dominated by participants seeking a quick trade and a free warrant.

The objective is alignment: management and major shareholders should benefit from building the company over time.

That framework also explains Jeff’s approach to artificial intelligence.

He believes AI will transform industries, much as railroads, telecommunications and the internet did. However, transformative technology can attract enormous amounts of capital without rewarding the investors who finance its earliest infrastructure.

Railroad tracks and fiber-optic networks created lasting economic value, but many original investors lost money. Later buyers who acquired those assets at distressed prices often did much better.

Geomorphic AI offers a more tangible application of the technology to a business Jeff already understands.

Jeff is a founding shareholder and leads business development. The company uses AI to assemble and interpret historical geological, geochemical, geophysical and exploration information from numerous sources and languages.

Data collected decades apart can reveal opportunities that earlier operators missed or dismissed under very different commodity prices. A historical copper intercept considered uneconomic at the time may deserve another look today.

Geomorphic generates projects for its own portfolio and potential joint ventures. It also analyzes information for other resource companies and can receive royalties for helping identify targets from their data. Jeff described a portfolio of roughly 20 projects and an expanding presence in Alaska, Kazakhstan and Peru.

He offered a practical example of how the platform improves investment research.

After hearing an investment thesis from a mining engineer, Jeff asked Geomorphic to evaluate the company and compare its project with similar deposits. The resulting report ran approximately 60 pages and covered geology, comparable projects, management history, filings and potential technical-report concerns.

His consulting geologists could then review and challenge a detailed body of work within days, accelerating a process that previously could take several weeks.

Gerardo disclosed that he and Nick are shareholders and recently recommended Geomorphic AI to Private Placement Intel subscribers. He sees the company as a potential evolution of the traditional prospect-generator model.

Bizarro Banter — A broken slot machine can make anyone feel brilliant in a bull market.

This week’s banter focused on investing psychology, mentorship and the experiences that shaped Jeff’s career.

Jeff grew up in a small farming community and credited his parents, particularly his father, with teaching him integrity, respect and the importance of keeping his word.

He was entrepreneurial long before entering mining. By his mid-20s, he had built a marketing business serving political campaigns and local companies. A friend working in brokerage introduced him to resource investing during the strong market of the mid-1990s.

Corporate communications work for mining companies followed, including businesses financed by Rick Rule. That gave Jeff access to experienced investors and a practical education in how the industry operates.

Rick, Van Simmons, Bob Bishop, Doug Casey and Jim Dines all influenced his thinking. Jeff emphasized learning what each person does well while remembering that no investor gets everything right.

Dines supplied two particularly durable lessons: begin the day appreciating that it is a great day to be alive, and remember that “rich or poor, it’s good to have cash.”

Gerardo illustrated the second lesson with his early rare-earth investments.

Huge gains in Rare Element Resources and Quest convinced him that he had discovered an easy way to make money. He borrowed from friends and credit cards, increased his exposure and eventually watched substantial option positions expire worthless when the cycle reversed.

The experience taught him to avoid excessive leverage and give investments enough time for their business plans to develop.

PMET Resources (formerly Patriot Battery Metals) supplied another lesson in patience and position management.

Jeff helped finance the company at C$0.16, yet it would have ranked near the bottom of his largest holdings before its lithium discovery transformed the business. The shares eventually reached approximately C$18.

He sold some shares around C$1 and has no interest in calculating the hypothetical fortune he could have made by selling everything at the peak. The subsequent decline toward C$2.50, following a roughly 90% collapse in lithium prices, demonstrates why taking profits matters even when the underlying discovery is exceptional.

Gerardo’s group continues to hold a substantial PMET position. Both men believe its world-class asset retains significant long-term value.

Jeff’s broader point was that investors need a basket of opportunities. The eventual grand slam may come from a company they initially ranked below several others.

He also explained why he continues working despite having the financial ability to retire: he enjoys building businesses, connecting good people and participating in discoveries.

Health, family and friendships remain more important than the next investment return.

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0:00 Introduction

0:58 Macro Musings: Gold Tests $4,000. Silver Slides. Copper Corrects. Tax-Loss Pressure.

3:16 Market Takes: Tech Dwarfs Mining. AI Meets Geology. Geomorphic Generates Prospects. Research Gets Faster.

12:43 Bizarro Banter: Jeff’s Journey. Mentors Matter. Ownership Counts. Cash Is King. Leverage Lessons. PMET’s Wild Ride.

36:30 Premium Portfolio Picks: (You need to subscribe to Bizarro World Live to get this section)

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