Metals Perma-Bulls Throw In The Towel, Signaling A Bottom

Gold below $4,000!

Silver below $60.00!

Copper below $6.00!

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) above 101!

A few days ago, the South Korean KOSPI was down 10%, triggering a wave of margin calls and liquidations.

The last time the metals were at current levels — specifically gold and silver — I said that we were near a bottom, though a bit more downside was possible before a sharp rebound higher in the second half of the year.

Is this the final bottom? No one really knows. The junior resource stocks indicate that may be the case.

Although metals perma-bulls are throwing in the towel, the resource stocks are no longer selling off. That’s a sign of seller exhaustion.

Context matters. In the near term, the metals are bearish. A short-term bearish consolidation within a mid- to long-term bull market is healthy and presents an opportunity.

It’s summertime, the Fed is perceived as hawkish, which it should be, though whether or not it actually is will be interesting to follow given the amount of debt the U.S. needs to refinance in the second half of the year.

Here’s where it gets interesting. The 10-year is now back well below the 4.50% level, sitting at 4.41%, with oil back at pre-war levels.

We're still in a mid- to long-term bull market in gold. Nothing there has changed. Same for silver. Same for copper. Same for uranium. Lithium is down some 14% over the past month following the recent rally. Still in a mid- to long-term bull market.

Let me be absolutely clear: all of those commodities remain in longer-term bull markets.

China continues to use its critical metals monopoly to intimidate the rest of the world, with the most recent flex of its critical metals muscle being the placement of U.S. rare earth companies on a naughty list.

MP Materials (NYSE: MP) and USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR) were added to China’s export control list on Monday, restricting access to Chinese dual-use goods and technologies that could have commercial or military applications.

In unrelated/related news, Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSE American: UUUU)(TSX: EFR) — tip of the hat to Nick Hodge for getting subscribers in ahead of the news — received a conditional $725 million financing commitment from the Department of War’s U.S. Office of Strategic Capital to support the planned expansion of the company's critical minerals processing capabilities at its White Mesa Mill in Utah, as well as a planned rare earth metals and alloy facility to be constructed in the United States.

The potential financing would support infrastructure and capacity to process rare earth elements and other critical materials from the company's growing portfolio of domestic and international projects.

U.S. debt is still at $39 trillion, central banks will continue to buy gold, etc., etc.

In other words, continue to let the process play out and allow price discovery to run its course ahead of what should be a phenomenal second half of the year.

The thesis is intact. The fundamentals are intact.

What you should be doing is making sure the companies you allocate capital to are working to add value during this correction.

The Junior Resource Monthly and Junior Resource Speculator portfolios are positioned well. With that being said, I am vetting several new ideas for each of the respective publications, and Nick and I are finalizing our due diligence on a couple of deals for subscribers of Private Placement Intel.

Rule Symposium

Last but not least, I’ll be at the Rule Symposium on Natural Resource Investing July 6–10 in Boca Raton, Florida. Hopefully, some of you are able to attend. Be sure to come up and say hello. 

Let's get it,

Gerardo Del Real

Gerardo Del Real
Editor, Bizarro World