Groundhog Day in the Markets: Same Old Headlines, Same Bullish Setup

It’s Groundhog Day!

The war with Iran is on again… but only for a little bit before it’s on again, before we declare victory again. The metals are getting whacked, the precious metals bears are back out in full force, inflation is at 4.2%. You know the drill.

That’s the noise of the day, week, and past month. Lots of moving parts and, in the junior resource space, signs of a summer bottom.

All eyes are on the 10-year Treasury yield. The 10-year above 4.50% is a problem for markets. It's a problem for mortgage markets. It's a problem for the broader indices and a problem for the metals. The dollar index is sitting comfortably right at the 100 level.

Gold is back down testing those March lows, currently trading at $4,123 per ounce and down over $135 on the day. Silver is back down to the $64 per ounce level and copper has pulled back to the $6.14 per pound level.

Bull market over? Absolutely not.

This is a healthy correction in a longer-term metals bull market. Not a fun one when there are few sellers but even fewer buyers and the price swings on your favorite junior are skewed to the downside. But it’s temporary and is presenting a heck of an opportunity.

The thesis is firmly intact.

Central bank demand and hedge fund demand for gold remain as strong as ever. That will continue.

Silver demand is as strong as ever. That will continue.

Copper demand is as strong as ever. That will continue.

As for uranium, as boring as that trade has been lately from a spot-price perspective, we're beginning to see encouraging signs in the long-term contract pricing.

Cameco earlier this week said recent discussions centered around utilities becoming comfortable setting future price floors near the $120/lb level. That's an indication of where some of the biggest players in the space see uranium prices heading. 

I say all of that to say this: all is well in the metals space.

On the critical metals side, the U.S. House of Representatives on Monday passed H.R. 7037, the Developing Overseas Mineral Investments and New Allied Networks for Critical Energies (DOMINANCE) Act, bipartisan legislation (imagine that!) introduced by Representatives Ami Bera, M.D. (CA) and Young Kim (CA) to strengthen U.S. energy security, reduce reliance on China for critical minerals, and build more resilient supply chains with trusted allies and partners.

The press release explained that the “DOMINANCE Act seeks to address this by expanding cooperation with allies and partners, supporting strategic mineral and energy investments, strengthening U.S. energy diplomacy, and investing in the workforce and expertise needed to build secure, diversified, and resilient critical mineral supply chains.”

“Securing reliable access to critical minerals is not a Democratic or Republican issue — it’s an American issue,” Bera said in a news release. “Today, China controls roughly 90% of global rare earth processing capacity, creating a strategic vulnerability that Beijing has shown it is willing to exploit through export restrictions and economic coercion.”

I couldn’t agree more… but it’s going to take a lot more capital, coordination, and talent to begin addressing the monopoly China has been able to establish.

It’s why, when I was shown a critical metals and gold project on private land here in America, I traveled down there to see for myself if it was real.

I really liked the gold aspect of the story and loved the fact that it has a tiny market cap, as very few people have heard about it. But I also wanted to see if it had the potential to supply important metals into the American supply chain and how quickly the company could potentially do it. 

I walked away amazed at the infrastructure advantage and saw a very real scenario where the critical metals aspect of the project could be fast-tracked.

So yes, the metals are down today and in consolidation mode. And yes, the world is a noisy place right now. But nothing has changed fundamentally in the metals space… and that’s the opportunity.

I expect the second half of the year to be very good for the metals and for the junior resource space.

Rule Symposium

I hope to see some of you July 6–10 in Boca Raton, Florida, at the Rule Symposium on Natural Resource Investing.

Let's get it,

Gerardo Del Real

Gerardo Del Real
Editor, Bizarro World